T20 World Cup 2026: As the business end beckons, have SA pipped India as top favourites?

T20 World Cup 2026: Have South Africa overtaken India as favourites? A statistical comparison ahead of the semi-finals.

South Africa were one shot away from tearing India’s dream in the previous T20 World Cup, or rather, a few inches away from completing their ambition. Less than two years later, they have taken another strong step towards the right direction. The Aiden Markram-led side have qualified for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 semifinal even before defending champions India.

The Blue Brigade came into the tournament as clear favorites to claim the title, let alone facing any hurdle to reach the semifinal. But their path wasn’t smooth. Once they faced the Proteas in the Super Eight stages at Ahmedabad, they crumbled under pressure. But the bottom line remains simple- South Africa have shown more clarity in various departments than India in this campaign.

South Africa’s collective batting keeps them ahead of India
South Africa’s collective batting has overtaken India in the ongoing World Cup 2026. They have lost only 25 wickets in six innings to collect 1020 runs at an average of more than 40.

The runners-up of the previous edition have operated at a strike rate of 159.23 with 89 boundaries and 51 sixes. Markram is the third leading run-getter of the campaign so far with 264 runs at a strike rate of 178.37, thanks to three fifties.

Meanwhile, India have an average of only 23.64, having lost 45 wickets in six innings at a strike rate of under 150. They have smashed 1064 runs in the campaign so far, shouldering on 63 sixes and 85 boundaries.

The contribution of both sides’ top five reflects a clearer picture. The Proteas’ top five batters in the batting line-up have gathered 915 runs at 43.97 with a strike rate of 159.97 in this World Cup. On the other hand, the Suryakumar Yadav-led side’s top five have struggled for an average of 28.59, having lost 29 wickets in six innings.

Fig 1: Top 5 batters’ performances for IND & SA in T20 WC 2026

Read More: T20 World Cup 2026: Aiden Markram has led with example to take SA to the semi-final stage

South Africa overtake India in middle overs’ batting
Both sides have been pretty balanced inside the powerplay and death overs of the World Cup. But their middle overs’ batting has a day-night difference.

The Rainbow Nation have lost only 12 wickets in six innings for a strike rate of 153.82 between the seventh and 15th over. Meanwhile, India have lost 18 wickets in that nine-over period for a poor strike rate of 125.

The biggest reason behind this contrast is how both teams have faced the spinners. During the middle overs of the T20 WC 2026, the Proteas have an average of 40.25 at a strike rate of 162.63. Dissimilarly, India have limped at an average of 21.42 and a strike rate of 122.38 against spin in the middle overs.

Fig 2: India’s batting breakup in T20 WC 2026

Fig 3: South Africa’s batting breakup in T20 WC 2026

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South Africa’s innovative bowling differentiate them from India
In terms of overall bowling performance in the T20 WC 2026, both India and South Africa are quite similar. The Proteas have collected 49 wickets in six innings at an economy rate of 7.82 and a strike rate of 14.51. Meanwhile, the 2007 champions have pocketed 48 wickets at an economy rate of 7.81 and a strike rate of 14.54.

Fig 4: IND & SA’s bowling in T20 WC 2026

South Africa show clarity in overall bowling
The powerplay bowling of both teams is nearly equal. But the dip comes in the middle and death overs. South Africa have a better economy rate of 7.61 in comparison to India’s 8.20 in the middle overs. Similarly, their economy rate of 7.89 is more clinical than the Blue Brigade’s 8.32 in the last five overs of the innings during this WC 2026.

The Rainbow Nation have used their resources in the bowling department pretty well. Markram himself has bowled well in patches whenever required. They trusted Keshav Maharaj to bowl the second Super Over against Afghanistan to bail them out of trouble.

Lungi Ngidi and Marco Jansen are currently the joint third leading-wicket takers of the event with 11 scalps each. Even Corbin Bosch has been excellent as he turned up against West Indies with 2/31 in four overs, including the vital wicket of Sherfane Rutherford.

Fig 5: India’s bowling breakup in T20 WC 2026

Fig 6: South Africa’s bowling breakup in T20 WC 2026

South Africa hope to take one step better in T20 World Cup 2026
Even though South Africa didn’t get the bilateral series victory against India last year, they gained experience. They found clarity in their bowling and batting under the stable and confident leadership of Markram. Moreover, they have some in-form players from the SA20, who now understand how to deal with the pressure in crunch situations.

In the last edition, India lifted the trophy with an unbeaten run. And South Africa lost their only contest in the final. This year, they have the chance to turn the tables. But as of now, they have pipped the co-hosts as the top favourites of the T20 World Cup 2026.

Read More: Marco Jansen has made India ‘home away from home’ with power-packed performance in T20 WC 2026