Pat Cummins’ injury clouds his Ashes 2025/26 selection, sparking questions on how Australia’s chances could dip without their star pacer.
Australia’s Test and ODI captain, Pat Cummins, hasn’t been in action since the end of the Test trip in the Caribbean. He missed the five T20Is against West Indies and was rested for the white-ball home series against South Africa. The plan was to bring him back for the New Zealand and India white-ball series before the Ashes 2025/26.
But that preparation has been compromised after scans revealed lumbar bone stress in his lower back. It leaves him in a state of potentially not playing any cricket before the England series, starting on November 21 in Perth. A routine scan on September 01 showed the bone stress, otherwise known as a hot spot. It can be a precursor to a stress fracture.
Pat Cummins’ lumbar bone stress hangs his Ashes 2025/26 selection in balance
Cummins has been cleared of any fracture in his lower spine. Meanwhile, the selection committee remains fully confident of the pacer being fit for the opening Test against England. The chairman of selectors, George Bailey, feels that ‘focus for Cummins will continue tobe just preparation for that Ashes Test series.’
“So there’ll just be some further management and a little bit of rehab around that. But in terms of the plan for the Ashes, I don’t think too much will change. It still feels like there’s plenty of time. But there’s full expectation that Pat will be right to come for the first Test.” Bailey expressed, as quoted by ESPNcricinfo.
Across international career, Cummins experienced a gap of six years between his debut in 2011 and the second red-ball clash in India. Since then, he hasn’t missed a huge chunk of cricket and faced only minor ankle injury and hamstring issues.
In 2022, the New South Wales pacer bowled 296 overs in 10 Tests, while it increased to 320.1 the following year. In 2024, he went through 275.4 overs in just nine Tests. In comparison, the veteran has bowled only 125.3 overs in five red-ball encounters this year. Out of these, only 95.1 came across the four games recently in June and July against South Africa and the West Indies.
Cummins will now have 11 weeks for the hot spot to settle. And it would be unlikely for him to turn up in action before the Ashes. NSW’s last Sheffield Shield match before the Perth Test starts on November 10 at the SCG. But he could also choose the one-day game against Queensland on November 03.
“Given how far out we are, there’s the potential for some Shield cricket in the lead-up. There are still options there. If it got to the stage where they were taken off the table, I still think that we’d be comfortable with Pat’s experience and skill level.” Bailey added.
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In Pat Cummins’ potential absence, Australia miss X-factor
Since the start of 2022, Pat Cummins has been the second leading wicket-taker in Tests. He has picked up 135 wickets at an average of 23.28 and a fine strike rate of 45.20. It’s incredible how Australia’s Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc are also in the top three.
Most Test wickets since Jan 2022
| Player | Inns | Wkts | Avg | SR | 5W | BBI |
| N Lyon | 63 | 151 | 25.59 | 53.40 | 06 | 8/64 |
| Cummins | 63 | 135 | 23.28 | 45.20 | 08 | 6/28 |
| M Starc | 69 | 133 | 26.74 | 44.40 | 03 | 6/9 |
| Jayasuriya | 41 | 122 | 31.37 | 58.70 | 12 | 7/52 |
| K Rabada | 42 | 116 | 20.22 | 34.90 | 07 | 6/46 |
Out of those 135 wickets, 94 scalps came in just 39 innings during the winning causes. The average decreases to 17.36 with an excellent strike rate of 37.7. At home, 59 of those 94 red-ball wickets came in 21 innings at an average of 14.20 and a strike rate of 32.1.
Overall at home, since the start of 2022, the right-arm pacer bagged 75 Test wickets at an average of 18.86. He picked up five five-wicket hauls at a strike rate of 39. In 40 Tests since January 2022 involving Cummins, Australia recorded 25 victories and faced only eight defeats. It proves the impact of the 32-year-old on the team’s balance.
Steven Smith is likely to lead Australia if they miss their captain. He also led the side in the two Tests in Sri Lanka earlier this year when the pacer missed due to an ankle issue. Even during the Adelaide Ashes 2020/21 Test, Smith was the captain when Cummins was ruled out due to COVID-19 rules.
Australia have its ready-made replacement in Scott Boland. But if one of Starc or Josh Hazlewood also pulls up, then they will have Michael Neser or Jhye Richardson. The latter is hopeful of being fully fit by the start of the Ashes, recovering from a shoulder injury at present.
They don’t have the luxury of two all-rounders in the playing eleven. Cameron Green’s return will perhaps push Beau Webster out of the side. Having all-rounders, however, could have worked out for the team. Cummins can also manage his workload in that manner, with Australia using five genuine seam options along with Nathan Lyon, the lone spinner.
