T20 World Cup 2026: New Zealand or Pakistan — who will clinch the second semifinal spot from Group 2?
The Super Eight stage of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 has produced a sharply divided Group 2. England have already secured qualification with two wins from two matches, leaving one semifinal berth open. That spot is now a straight contest between New Zealand and Pakistan, while Sri Lanka are already out of the race.
After two matches each, England sit on 4 points. New Zealand are second with 3 points (one win and one washout), while Pakistan have 1 point (one loss and one washout). The numbers show New Zealand in control, but the tournament has been anything but straightforward.
How has Group 2 unfolded so far?
Group 2 has been shaped by margins and weather. The rain-affected clash between New Zealand and Pakistan denied both sides a direct result, forcing the semifinal race to depend heavily on net run rate and final-round performances. England’s two clinical wins removed one variable, but the remaining berth now hinges on execution under pressure.
New Zealand strengthened their position with a crucial win over Sri Lanka, while Pakistan were left chasing equations after falling short against England. The group has not been about dominance; it has been about timing.
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Group 2 Points Table
| TEAMS | MATCHES | W | L | N/R | PTS | NRR |
| England | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.491 |
| New Zealand | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.050 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0.461 |
| Sri Lanka | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.800 |
Qualification Scenarios Group 2
Scenario 1
If New Zealand beat England on February 27, New Zealand will qualify for the semi-final by topping the group with five points. They will then play the second-place team from Group 1 in the semi-finals. With this result, Pakistan will be eliminated from the semi-final race.
Scenario 2
If England win against New Zealand, they will top the group with six points. Then it will be a battle between Pakistan and New Zealand on the NRR for a semi-final spot.
If England score 180 and beat New Zealand by 30 runs, Pakistan will have to beat SL by 40 runs (assuming Pakistan also score 180).
If New Zealand bat first and score 150, and England chase the target in 17 overs; assuming Pakistan chase the same target against SL, they will have to reach the target in around 14.4 overs to pit New Zealand.
Team Batting Comparison: New Zealand vs Pakistan
In the 2026 T20 World Cup, New Zealand have scored 877 runs in 6 matches, averaging 41.76 with a strong run rate of 9.92 runs per over. Their highest score is 183, reflecting their aggressive batting approach throughout the tournament.
Meanwhile, Pakistan have accumulated 815 runs in 6 matches, at an average of 21.44 and a run rate of 8.35 runs per over. Their highest score stands at 199, but overall, their scoring rate has been notably lower compared to New Zealand. The numbers underline the contrast: New Zealand have been the more fluent batting side, while Pakistan have operated at a comparatively restrained pace.
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| TEAM | MAT | WON | LOST | NR | RUNS | AVE | HS |
| New Zealand | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 877 | 41.76 | 183 |
| Pakistan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 815 | 21.44 | 199 |
Team Bowling Comparison: New Zealand vs Pakistan
In the bowling department, the contrast is even sharper. Pakistan have taken 43 wickets in six matches, the highest among the two sides, with an impressive bowling average of 17.27 and an economy rate (RPO) of 7.69. These numbers underline Pakistan’s ability to strike regularly and control scoring phases.
In comparison, New Zealand have managed just 27 wickets in six matches, with a significantly higher bowling average of 30.11 and an economy rate of 8.36. The gap of 16 wickets highlights New Zealand’s struggle to break partnerships consistently, a factor that could become decisive in high-pressure matches.
| TEAM | MAT | WON | LOST | NR | WKTS | AVE | HS |
| Pakistan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 17.27 | 175 |
| NZ | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 30.11 | 182 |
Batting vs Bowling: Who Has the Edge?
This contest has effectively become a clash of strengths. New Zealand’s batting unit has delivered throughout the tournament, with contributions spread across the order. Pakistan, meanwhile, possess one of the more effective bowling attacks in these conditions, spearheaded by Shaheen Afridi.
If the semifinal race were decided purely on balance, New Zealand would appear slightly ahead because of their superior net run rate and collective batting form. Pakistan’s path requires not only victory but dominance, something their bowling can facilitate, but their batting must support.
One team has excelled with the bat. The other has relied on the ball. In T20 cricket, titles are often won by balanced sides, and right now, New Zealand appear closer to that equilibrium.
Unless Pakistan’s batting fires collectively in their final outing, the numbers and current momentum suggest that New Zealand are best placed to book the second semifinal berth from Group 2 of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026.
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