How can Team India still make to the ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 final after 0-3 series loss to New Zealand. Who all the front-runner for the finals?
New Zealand has just inflicted an away whitewash over Team India in the 3-match Test series, after winning the final Test at Mumbai by 25 runs. This 0-3 drubbing not only gave India their first-ever whitewash at home (in a test series of three or more games) but also jeopardized their quest for qualifying for a third straight ICC World Test Championship Final.
Current ICC WTC 2023-25 standings:
Team | Matches | Won | Loss | Draw | PT | PCT |
Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.50 |
India | 14 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 98 | 58.33 |
Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
New Zealand | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 72 | 54.55 |
South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 54.17 |
England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 93 | 40.79 |
Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 33.33 |
Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 27.50 |
West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 18.52 |
This is what the WTC table looks like following New Zealand’s win over India at the Wankhede stadium. While India still stands in the second spot, their WTC final chances have taken a huge hit due to this result.
How do things look for India at the moment?
Coming into this series against New Zealand, India required four wins out of their remaining 8 Tests against the Kiwis and Australia to seal a place in the WTC Final. However, they dropped all the 36 WTC points available against New Zealand. They now require four wins to qualify for the final.
As a result, they slipped to the second spot behind Australia in the table with a PCT of 58.33, with the likes of South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand in proximity. This result has made the WTC table a lot more interesting and India are now no longer the favourites for a spot in the final.
While India still are not completely out of the running, they will have to win at least 4 of their 5 remaining away Tests against Australia. Yes, India have won the last two series in Australia but have never won more than two Tests in a single series down under.
Read More: IND vs NZ, 3rd Test, Day 3: Collapse Calypso continues for India; NZ inflict historic 3-0 whitewash
Qualification scenarios for India, Tests remaining: 5
Scenario 1: India win 4 Test, Loses 1
If India were to somehow win four Tests in Australia and lose one, their PCT would reach a maximum of 64.04. This will place them in the third position, below New Zealand (64.29) and South Africa (69.44), provided both win their respective Test matches at home.
Scenario 2: India wins 4 Test, Draw 1
If India do manage to remain unscathed without a single loss in Australia, their PCT would be 65.79, which puts them ahead of New Zealand (64.29).
Scenario 3: India wins 3 and losses 2
More than one loss in Australia will directly put India out of contention for a WTC spot, provided NZ & SA win all their respective games.
Who are the other teams in the fray?
Well, apart from India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Sri Lanka remain in contention for a WTC final spot.
Qualification scenario for Australia, Tests remaining: 7
At present, Australia seem the favourites to go through as a WTC finalist for the second edition running. They require just three wins out of the seven tests they have remaining, and this will give them a PCT of 65.79. Even if New Zealand win all three remaining Tests, it won't be enough to dethrone Australia from the top two.
It should be doable for Australia as they have five of those Tests scheduled at home against India and the other two away versus Sri Lanka.
Qualification scenario for New Zealand, Tests remaining: 3
After their historic triumph in India, NZ stand with a chance of making it to their second WTC final. However, they need to win all three Tests against England at home, taking their PCT to 64.29 and hope other results go their way (SA has to lose at least a game).
Qualification scenario for South Africa, Tests remaining: 4
Like New Zealand, South Africa’s chances of making it to the final just got brighter after their away series win over Bangladesh. If they win all their remaining 4 Tests, their PCT will go to 69.44 and should be enough to make it to the WTC final.
However, even a single loss at home against either Sri Lanka or Pakistan could hamper their prospects.
Qualification scenario for Sri Lanka, Tests remaining: 4
For Sri Lanka to qualify, they would need to all their remaining games against South Africa (away) and Australia (home) and pin hopes on the other result. They would ideally want New Zealand to lose more than 1 Test against England.
While there are no straightforward WTC Finalists yet, the chance for a South Africa - Australia final at the Lord’s looms large and seems likely.
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