Pakistan stand at no. 5 in WTC 2023-25 points table. With 7 Tests to be played at home in ICC World Test Championship 2023-25, can Pakistan make it to the final?
The race to the 2023–2025 World Test Championship final is getting exciting as the last leg of the competition has begun. India are sitting pretty at the top with a PCT of 68.51 and are favourites to play their third straight final. They have five home Tests and five Tests against Australia Down Under to seal the spot in the final. But who are likely to be the second team to play in the final?
Australia, who are second in the points table with a PCT of 62.50, have a great chance to make it if they win the series against India at home. But the door for the second spot in the final opens up if India win the series against Australia without losing a Test or by a close margin.
In this case, other teams, such as Pakistan, may become the underdogs who could pip Australia for a spot in the final.
Current WTC standings
Teams | Matches | Win | Lost | Draw | PT | PCT |
India | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 74 | 68.51 |
Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.50 |
New Zealand | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 50.00 |
Sri Lanka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 50.00 |
Pakistan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 36.66 |
West Indies | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 33.33 |
South Africa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 25.00 |
Bangladesh | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 25.00 |
England | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 17.50 |
Pakistan’s standing and their remaining fixtures
Pakistan have played five Tests so far in the cycle, winning two and losing three, with a PCT of 36.66. They are placed fifth in the points table. The greatest advantage for Pakistan is that they have nine Tests in hand, with seven of them at their home grounds. They play three Tests against England and two Tests each against West Indies and Bangladesh at home. They also play two Tests in South Africa.
Read More: India lead WTC 25 Table with 68.51 PCT; Are they gearing up for a third straight Championship Final?
How Pakistan can boost their chances
Playing at home gives Pakistan the edge over their opponents. Pakistan should start as favourites against Bangladesh and West Indies. They should aim for an unbeaten record in these five Tests if not a whitewash. The biggest challenge will be England at home. However, India have shown recently that ‘Bazball’ can be tamed in sub-continental conditions. If Pakistan do triumph over England at home, it will give an immense boost to their chances of making it to the final, considering Australia faltered in the Tests against India Down Under.
However, even if Pakistan enjoy a great run in the seven Tests at home, losses in South Africa may dent their chances. Hence, Pakistan should look to contain South Africa and aim for a draw if an outright win is not possible, as points from the drawn matches will also add up to the points tally.
Let’s consider a situation where Pakistan whitewash all their opponents in the nine matches while Australia fail to win a single Test against India at home. Pakistan will collect 108 points (12 points per win) and end up with total points of 130 and a PCT of 92.85, good enough to leapfrog the Aussies for a place in the final.
Pakistan are walking a thin line
However, considering Australia lose all their matches against India or draw a few games, Pakistan just need to better Australia’s PCT of 62.5 or more after adding points for draws or any win. Hence, for Pakistan to go ahead of 62.5 PCT or more, they need to win six games at least to cross Australia’s current PCT.
If Pakistan win six matches at home and lose their three remaining games, they would end up with 94 points and a PCT of 67.14. A win in five games and four losses will bring their points to 82 and PCT to 58.57, and their chances of making it to the final will go up in flames. Hence, Pakistan are already walking on a thin line with little room for a comeback in the WTC.
However, other teams such as New Zealand, England, and South Africa are also in the fray, hoping to win all their games while either Australia or India go through a slump in form. Pakistan and other teams will be better served by not looking at the various permutations and combinations and rather focusing on winning most matches and not losing or drawing to reduce the impact of the matches that went out of hand.
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