ICC World Test Championship 2024-25: How does Bengaluru Test against New Zealand impact Team India's chances to WTC 2025 final?
Test cricket has seen a couple of streaks broken in the last few days. The first is Pakistan winning a home Test after nearly three years, and the other one is New Zealand winning their first Test in India after a long gap of 36 years.
While Pakistan’s win didn’t cause complications or make such an impact on the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 points table, India's defeat surely did. Thanks to their 8-wicket loss at Bengaluru, the road to their third consecutive WTC Final received a significant jolt.
Current ICC WTC 2023-25 standings:
Team | Matches | Won | Loss | Draw | PT | PCT |
India | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 98 | 68.06 |
Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.50 |
Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
New Zealand | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 48 | 44.44 |
England | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 93 | 43.05 |
South Africa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 38.89 |
Bangladesh | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 34.38 |
Pakistan | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 25.92 |
West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 18.52 |
Despite losing the first Test of the series at Bengaluru, India are still at the top of the WTC standings with a PCT of 68.06, which is nearly 6 points more than the second-best team, Australia.
What is the complication for the Men in Blue?
Before the series against Bangladesh, India needed five wins to be assured of a top-2 finish in the WTC league table. They did win two on two in that series and required three more wins to confirm their final berth. India would have hoped for those three wins to come in the New Zealand series so they don't need to worry about the qualification scenario in the tough away series against Australia.
However, this loss means the men in blue will have to not only win the remaining games against New Zealand but also win at least one Test down under. India may have triumphed in their previous Test series in Australia, but this upcoming challenge will be entirely different. The Australian team is exceptionally strong and will be ready to give their all against India, particularly since they haven’t won a Test series against India since the 2014/15 tour.
Read More: India made plethora of mistakes in Bengaluru; How things might have been addressed better
Qualification scenarios for India, Tests remaining: 7
Scenario 1: Win 3 and Lose 4
If India wins two against New Zealand and at least a Test in Australia, their PCT at the end of the cycle will be 58.77, which puts them in the second position behind Australia (71.05, given they win two matches against Sri Lanka as well).
Scenario 2: Win 2 and Lose 5
If India does manage to get over the line in only two of the remaining seven Tests, their PCT further slips to 53.51, and they will need to rely on other results to go in their favour. Australia will retain the pole position with 76.32 PCT (again assuming they win 2-0 against SL).
Teams in the fray for WTC final and the impact of their results
At this point, Sri Lanka and South Africa are the only other sides that can still make it to the WTC final. England, after losing the second Test against Pakistan, can only reach up to 53.41 PCT even if they win all their remaining four games.
Games remaining for SA: 6
The Proteas have three series left, one away against Bangladesh and two at home versus Pakistan and Sri Lanka. If they win all of these games, their PCT will rise to 69.44, giving them a top-2 finish. However, a slip in one game can reduce the PCT to about 61.11, and two losses will result in elimination (52.78).
Read More: IND vs NZ, 1st Test, Day 5: NZ knock off target of 107, win a Test in India after 36 years
Games remaining for SL: 4
Like South Africa, Sri Lanka's team have more than a decent chance of making it to their maiden WTC Final. However, they have two challenging 2-match Test tours; one at home versus Australia and the other is an away series in South Africa.
If they win all their remaining matches, SL will reach a PCT of 69.23 and go ahead of Australia (65.79, best-case scenario). They could afford to lose two games, which make their PCT 53.85, but India (53.51) should have lost all five Tests in Australia.
Games remaining for NZ: 5
Former champions New Zealand are also in with a chance if they can win all of their five remaining five Tests against India (2) and England (3 at home). This takes their PCT to 64.29. They will still need a few results to go in their favour.
With all these scenarios in mind, India cannot afford any more slip-ups, not in the two remaining Tests at home versus New Zealand. The Rohit Sharma-led side will also need to be at their best in their away games in Australia.
Scenario 3 for India: Win 4 and Lose 3
This should be the best scenario of them all for India, as it keeps their PCT at 64.04, much away from the rest of the teams, only barring South Africa (if they win all their games) and Australia (65.79).
Hence, it is safe to say that there are no straight-forward WTC finalists in view thus far, and several permutations and combinations will come into play.
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